In 2024 64 countries, plus the European Union is holding elections. That means 49% of the global population is voting this year. A good sign for democracy or how democratic is the world?
Over the years, organizations like Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) have tracked democratic development across nations. The latest report from V-Dem, spanning from 1973 to 2023, paints a concerning picture of global democracy trends.
The Retreat of Democracy
The 2024 report highlights a disconcerting reality: autocratization continues to be the dominant trend, mirroring patterns observed in previous years. What's particularly alarming is the nuanced analysis of regime changes. While some countries show signs of improvement after a period of decline (U-turns), others experience democratic declines despite recent improvements (Bell-turns). This volatility underscores the fragility of democracy and the need for nuanced scrutiny.
Democracy in Decline
The data indicates a regression in democratic values over several decades. By country-based averages, democracy has regressed to 1998 levels, while for the average person, it's back to the state observed in 1985 (!!!). This retrogression is not uniform; instead, it's starkly pronounced in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia.
The Autocracy Surge
The divide between democracies and autocracies remains almost evenly balanced on paper. However, the distribution of populations paints a different picture. A staggering 71% of the world's populace resides in autocracies, a significant increase from a decade ago. Electoral autocracies, in particular, are home to a substantial portion of the global population, with 44% residing in such regimes.
Democratic Erosion
The erosion of democratic institutions is a global phenomenon. Freedom of expression, a cornerstone of democracy, is deteriorating in more countries than it's improving. Similarly, clean elections, once considered relatively stable, are now experiencing deterioration in multiple nations. This decline extends to freedom of association, further constricting civil society's ability to function autonomously.
Trends of Regime Change
Of the 60 countries experiencing regime transformation, the wave of autocratization is particularly noteworthy. India, accounting for a significant portion of the world's population, stands out in this regard. While there are tentative signs of the autocratization wave slowing down, caution is warranted in interpreting these trends. On the flip side, democratization efforts are limited, with only 18 countries making strides in this direction.
Hope Amidst Challenges
Despite the negative trends, a few countries are becoming more democratic. Yet, we have to remember that the road to democratization is fraught with obstacles, and setbacks are common! Democracy needs to be preserved, guarded and cared for. The upcoming national elections serve as critical junctures that can either propel democratization or further entrench autocratic regimes. If you're able to vote this year, make sure you vote for parties ready to guard our human right to vote, participate in elections and freedom of speech.